UK Fuel Theft Hits £72m Annual Cost as Drive-Offs Rise 20% Since Iran War

UK petrol stations are losing an estimated £194,000 per day to fuel theft - a 48% increase in value since the Iran war began on 28 February 2026, according to industry analysis^[1]. The figures, compiled by fuel theft prevention company Forecourt Eye from a sample of 550 forecourts and extrapolated across the UK's 8,359 petrol stations, suggest annual losses now exceed £72 million.

Drive-off incidents - where motorists leave forecourts without paying - have risen by 20% in the five months since the conflict disrupted Middle East oil supplies^[1]. The number of incidents has increased from around 2,400 per day nationally to an estimated 2,872 daily incidents across all UK forecourts.

The spike coincides with petrol prices reaching 160p per litre^[2] - the highest level since the Iran war began and the highest since 2022. The RAC reported on 31 July 2026 that petrol had reached 159.97p per litre, while diesel stood at 178.97p per litre.

Volume and Value of Stolen Fuel

The volume of stolen fuel has risen by 24% since the war began, up from an estimated 87,000 litres to 108,900 litres per day across all forecourts^[1]. At current prices, this translates to approximately £174,000 per day in petrol alone, with the total figure including diesel theft reaching the £194,000 daily average.

Forecourt Eye's analysis covers the five-month period from 28 February 2026, when the Iran conflict began, comparing theft levels with the five months prior. The incidents tracked include both traditional drive-offs - where customers leave without attempting to pay - and cases where individuals claim to have no means of payment after filling their vehicles^[1].

The company also reported that petrol stations are experiencing an increase in "abuse, intimidation and violence from frustrated customers"^[1], suggesting the price pressure is affecting behaviour beyond simple theft.

Oil Price Volatility and Pump Costs

The theft surge follows volatile oil markets since the Iran war began. Brent crude - the global benchmark for wholesale oil prices - traded at approximately $70 per barrel before the conflict, surged above $120 during the initial fighting, fell back to near $70 when the US and Iran agreed to a framework deal in June, then climbed above $100 when peace talks collapsed^[2]. As of 31 July 2026, Brent crude was trading around $90 per barrel.

According to the RAC^[2], every $10 per barrel increase in oil prices pushes pump prices up by roughly 7p per litre. The conflict severely disrupted oil supplies across the Middle East, triggering wholesale price increases that took approximately two weeks to appear at UK forecourts.

Fuel prices peaked in April 2026, before falling when the framework deal was signed in June. Petrol reached a low of 150.59p per litre in early July, while diesel fell to 164.52p per litre^[2]. The subsequent collapse of peace talks reversed these declines, with RAC head of policy Simon Williams predicting diesel would likely reach 185p per litre "in the next few weeks, barring any major oil price reduction"^[2].

Industry Response and Technology

In response to the escalating theft problem, Forecourt Eye announced it would partner with facial recognition company Facewatch to offer more than 2,000 retailers free access to crime reporting technology from autumn 2026^[1].

The company previously reported a similar rise in fuel theft after the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in early 2022, when petrol reached 191.5p per litre and diesel hit 199p^[2] - still higher than current prices despite the Iran conflict.

Chancellor John Healey told the Sunday Telegraph he would be "watching closely" for any suggestion the public were being "taken for a ride at the pump or the till"^[1], though he said there was no significant evidence of price gouging. Earlier in 2026, former Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and ministers had said the government would step in if customers were being overcharged by fuel retailers, remarks that led to a row with the Petrol Retailers Association, which criticised the government's "inflammatory language"^[1].

The official markets regulator said it had "not seen evidence of retailers actively changing their pricing strategies to take advantage of the crisis"^[2]. The government's Fuel Finder scheme allows drivers to compare costs at petrol stations across the UK.

UK Company Register Context

Across the wider UK company register, 109,626 companies are currently in liquidation^[3], with an additional 4,714 in administration, 969 in receivership, and 2,660 in voluntary arrangements. These economy-wide insolvency figures reflect ongoing pressure on businesses across all sectors.

London remains the largest concentration of registered companies in the UK with 1,031,660 active entities, followed by Manchester with 100,053 and Birmingham with 90,171^[3]. The total UK company register currently contains 6,497,665 companies, of which 5,568,637 are active.

While the forecourt sector faces immediate pressure from theft and volatile fuel costs, the £72 million annual loss represents a significant operational burden for an industry already navigating energy transition pressures and regulatory change. The Forecourt Eye data suggests the correlation between pump prices and theft incidents may create a feedback loop as operators factor security costs into margins, though the extent of this effect remains unclear from available data.