Energy Bills to Rise 13% in July: Data Analysis Reveals Which UK Business Sectors Face Greatest Risk

UK businesses face a 13% increase in energy costs from 1 July 2026, with the typical annual bill rising by £221 to £1,862, according to Ofgem's latest price cap announcement^[1]. The increase, driven by soaring wholesale oil and gas costs from the US-Israel war with Iran, will impact the UK's 5.6 million companies differently across sectors^[2].

The BBC reports that the conflict has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz shipping route, through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas usually flows^[3]. This has caused wholesale gas prices to rise by 25%, with suppliers warning prices could climb even higher in the winter months^[3].

Transport and Logistics Sectors Face Direct Impact

Analysis of CompanyPulse company register data reveals 73,815 freight transport companies operating across the UK, making this one of the most exposed sectors to rising energy costs^[2]. These businesses face a double impact from both higher fuel costs for their vehicle fleets and increased energy bills for warehousing and distribution facilities.

The energy price increase comes as global oil markets remain volatile. While oil prices fell to $97.70 a barrel on Monday 25 May on hopes of a US-Iran peace deal, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the conflict started on 28 February^[4].

Food Service Industry Among Most Vulnerable

The data shows 83,438 takeaway food shops and mobile food stands operating in the UK^[2]. These businesses typically operate on thin margins and rely heavily on energy for cooking equipment, refrigeration, and heating customer spaces. The 13% rise in energy costs will significantly impact their operating expenses.

The pressure on food-related businesses extends beyond energy costs. Dairy farmers are already warning that milk prices have fallen below production costs, with farmers receiving 32-35p per litre while production costs reach 42-49p^[5]. Rising energy bills will add further strain to agricultural businesses already operating at a loss.

Real Estate Sector's Hidden Energy Exposure

While manufacturing and transport are obvious energy-intensive sectors, the data reveals significant exposure in the property sector. There are 443,854 companies involved in letting and operating real estate, 274,124 in buying and selling property, and 125,357 in property management^[2].

These businesses face increased costs for heating, lighting, and maintaining commercial and residential properties. Property management companies in particular must balance rising energy costs against tenant expectations and regulatory requirements for energy efficiency.

Personal Services and Retail Under Pressure

The personal services sector shows 74,677 hairdressing and beauty treatment businesses^[2]. These establishments require significant energy for heating, hot water, and electrical equipment. Similarly, the 153,220 companies classified under other service activities will face varying degrees of impact depending on their specific operations^[2].

Online retail, represented by 202,571 companies in mail order and internet sales^[2], may appear less exposed to energy costs than traditional retail. However, these businesses still face increased costs for warehousing, logistics, and data centres powering their e-commerce operations.

Insolvency Risks Across Sectors

Current insolvency data from CompanyPulse shows 109,391 companies in liquidation, with 5,032 in administration^[2]. While these figures represent various economic pressures, the 13% energy price rise may accelerate financial distress in energy-intensive sectors.

The timing of the increase, taking effect from 1 July, means businesses will face higher costs through the summer months when some sectors like hospitality typically generate crucial revenue. Gas prices will rise to 7.33 pence per kilowatt hour from 5.74p, while electricity increases to 26.11p per kWh from 24.67p^[1].

Looking Ahead: Winter Concerns and Market Volatility

Energy suppliers have forecast that prices could move even higher by autumn and winter^[3]. This uncertainty makes financial planning particularly challenging for the UK's 5.6 million companies, especially those in sectors with high energy consumption or tight profit margins.

The potential for peace negotiations between the US and Iran offers some hope for market stabilisation. However, Iranian officials have stated that while agreement has been reached on a "large portion of the issues under discussion", a deal is "not imminent"^[4].

As businesses prepare for the July price increase, those in energy-intensive sectors will need to carefully manage costs and potentially revisit pricing strategies. The data suggests that beyond obvious sectors like manufacturing and transport, significant numbers of companies in property management, food service, and personal services face material impacts on their operating costs.