Oil at $100+: JP Morgan Predicts Sustained High Prices as 74,438 UK Transport Companies Face Rising Costs

Investment bank JP Morgan has predicted that global oil prices will remain in the "low $100s" for much of this year, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens as early as next month^[1]. The forecast signals sustained pressure for the UK's energy-intensive business sectors, including the 74,438 companies operating in freight transport by road^[2].

The bank's analysis, released on Monday, suggests oil prices should average $97 for 2026 as a whole^[1]. International oil benchmark Brent rose by more than 4% to $105.94 per barrel at one point before falling back to around $105^[1].

Transport Sector Bears the Brunt

The UK's road freight transport sector, comprising 74,438 companies according to CompanyPulse's company register^[2], faces direct exposure to sustained high fuel costs. These businesses, which form the backbone of the UK's supply chain, typically operate on thin margins where fuel represents a significant portion of operating expenses.

The geographic concentration of these companies adds another dimension to the challenge. London alone hosts 1,065,961 companies across all sectors^[3], followed by Manchester with 103,470 companies and Birmingham with 93,686^[3]. These urban centres depend heavily on road freight for daily operations, from retail deliveries to construction supplies.

Supply Chain Bottlenecks Expected to Persist

According to the BBC, JP Morgan's analysis "does not point to a quick normalization once the Strait reopens"^[1]. The bank expects the bottleneck to shift from the "Strait itself to tanker availability, refinery ramp-ups and wider logistical constraints"^[1].

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil and gas shipments usually pass, has been effectively shut since shortly after the war started on 28 February^[1]. This disruption to global energy supplies has created cascading effects throughout the UK economy.

Wider Business Impact Across Sectors

Beyond transport, the UK's 5,547,593 active companies (as of May 2026)^[4] face varying degrees of exposure to high energy costs. The construction sector, with 100,521 companies in domestic building construction (SIC code 41202)^[5], relies heavily on diesel-powered equipment and materials transport.

The retail sector also faces pressure, with 84,399 take-away food shops and mobile food stands^[5] managing both delivery fuel costs and energy-intensive food preparation. Online retailers, numbering 205,548 companies^[5], depend on courier services and last-mile delivery networks that are directly impacted by fuel prices.

Early Warning Signs in Company Data

Recent incorporation trends show continued business formation despite economic headwinds. In the week of 5-11 May 2026, 13,541 new companies were incorporated^[4]. Daily incorporation figures ranged from 392 on 5 May to 3,383 on 11 May^[6].

However, insolvency data provides a more concerning picture. Current figures show 109,561 companies in liquidation, 5,179 in administration, 3,918 in voluntary arrangements, and 539 in receivership^[7]. These numbers may increase as sustained high energy costs pressure company cash flows.

Regional Vulnerabilities

The geographic distribution of UK businesses creates distinct regional vulnerabilities. Cities like Glasgow (71,635 companies), Edinburgh (57,813), and Cardiff (50,133)^[3] have significant business populations that rely on road transport networks for both supplies and customer deliveries.

Northern cities including Leeds (50,840 companies), Liverpool (46,886), and Sheffield (35,414)^[3] face particular challenges given their distance from major ports and reliance on road haulage for goods movement.

Looking Ahead

Energy prices have swung wildly since the start of the conflict, with Brent crude having risen back above $100 a barrel since the ceasefire came into effect on 8 April^[1]. JP Morgan's projection that oil will remain in the "low $100s" for most of the rest of this year^[1] suggests UK businesses must prepare for an extended period of elevated energy costs.

The bank's analysis that supplies of oil in the region would not return to normal service quickly^[1] indicates that even diplomatic progress may not bring immediate relief to energy-intensive sectors. Companies across the UK's diverse business landscape will need to adapt their operations and pricing strategies to navigate this sustained period of high fuel costs.